Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb txog hluav taws xob thiab khoom siv fais fab tab tom nkag mus rau theem hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv xyoo 2026. Kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm lub network yog cov tsav tsheb hloov pauv loj heev. Lub koom haum tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev loj hlob muaj zog, txhawb nqa los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob huv thiab kev thov hluav taws xob nce siab. Txawm li cas los xij, nws kuj ntsib teeb meem ntau ntxiv, suav nrog kev txwv ntawm cov khoom siv, kev hloov kho txoj cai, thiab kev hloov pauv thev naus laus zis sai. Los ntawm daim ntawv qhia tshiab IEA Electricity 2026, cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai thoob ntiaj teb, thiab kev tshawb pom tshiab hauv kev lag luam, daim ntawv qhia no tshawb nrhiav cov qauv tseem ceeb, cov teeb meem tseem ceeb, thiab cov lus qhia yav tom ntej rau kev lag luam xyoo no.
Kev Tswj Hwm Rov Ua Dua Tshiab Ua Rau Muaj Zog, Txhawb Kev Txhim Kho Cov Khoom Siv Siab Tshaj Plaws
Xyoo 2026 yog ib xyoo keeb kwm rau kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm lub zog thoob ntiaj teb: cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab tau dhau los ua cov thee ua lub hauv paus hluav taws xob loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, xaus rau qhov kev tswj hwm ntawm cov thee yuav luag ib puas xyoo, raws li IEA. Lub hnub ci PV thiab cua tam sim no suav txog yuav luag 20% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb. Lub hnub ci PV yog qhov ntu loj hlob sai tshaj plaws, nrog rau xyoo 2025 kev tsim hluav taws xob txhua xyoo ncav cuag 620 TWh - nce siab los ntawm 450 TWh hauv xyoo 2024. Nws xav tias yuav dhau los ua cua, nuclear, thiab hydropower sai sai no.
Qhov kev nthuav dav sai ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab no ua rau muaj kev hloov kho tshiab hauv kev lag luam khoom siv hluav taws xob, txav mus dhau qhov kev xav tau yooj yim mus rau cov kev daws teeb meem zoo thiab ntse. Cov khoom siv xa hluav taws xob siab-voltage ncaj qha tam sim no (HVDC) daws cov kev xav tau xa hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab ntev, qis kev poob. Nws lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb loj hlob ntau dua 25% hauv xyoo 2026. Cov inverters ntse—nrog kev tswj hwm txuas nrog grid thiab kev sib phim khaws cia hluav taws xob—tam sim no yog tus qauv rau cov haujlwm hnub ci thiab cua tshiab. Qhov tseem ceeb, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm UHV thiab cov khoom siv xa hluav taws xob DC hloov pauv tau nce 81.5% txhua xyoo hauv ob lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2026, ua tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom siv siab kawg.
Kev Xav Tau Ntau Ntxiv Ua Rau Kev Ruaj Ntseg ntawm Cov Khoom Siv Khoom
Kev thov hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tab tom loj hlob sai heev, nce 3.7% hauv xyoo 2026—yuav luag 2.5 npaug ntawm qhov kev thov hluav taws xob tag nrho. IEA hais txog kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam, kev nthuav dav ntawm chaw khaws ntaub ntawv AI, kev nkag mus rau EV ntau dua, thiab cov khoom siv txias dua thaum lub caij ntuj sov ua cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb. Cov teb chaws tshiab yuav pab txhawb yuav luag 80% ntawm kev thov hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tshiab los ntawm xyoo 2030. Cov teb chaws tsim kho kuj pom kev siv hluav taws xob rov qab los, nrog AI thiab kev tsim khoom siab heev ua cov cav loj hlob tshiab.
Qhov kev thov tsis tu ncua no ua rau cov khoom tseem ceeb tsawg zuj zus. Cov transformers, switchgear, thiab cov cables high-voltage tseem tsis txaus, nrog rau lub sijhawm ua cov khoom tseem ceeb ntev txog 8-12 lub hlis. Cov chaw tsim khoom tab tom txhim kho lub peev xwm tab sis ntsib teeb meem: tus nqi tooj liab thiab txhuas hloov pauv ntau dua 20% txhua xyoo, thiab kev cuam tshuam kev thauj mus los tshwm sim qee zaum. Txhawm rau hloov kho, ntau lub tuam txhab tab tom ua kom nrawm dua "Tuam Tshoj + N" kev teeb tsa ntau yam. Lawv tab tom hloov qee qhov kev tsim khoom mus rau Sab Hnub Tuaj Asia thaum txhawb nqa Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom tseem ceeb kom txo qis kev pheej hmoo ntawm geopolitical thiab kev lag luam. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2026 kev xa hluav taws xob thiab kev faib khoom muaj nqis ntawm USD 142.8 billion, nrog rau cov transformers suav txog 38.2% - qhia txog lawv lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb.
Qhov tseem ceeb, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv fais fab xa tawm tau loj hlob tas li rau peb xyoos sib law liag. Xyoo 2025 cov khoom xa tawm tau txog li 374 billion US dollars (kwv yees li 2.6 trillion yuan), nce 26% txhua xyoo - siab dua 10.4 feem pua ntawm xyoo dhau los. Transformers ua tus thawj coj kev loj hlob, ua rau kwv yees li 41% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm. Lub zog no sib haum nrog Tuam Tshoj txoj cai peb xyoos los tswj hwm lub sector, tsom mus rau 6% kev loj hlob txhua xyoo rau cov khoom siv fais fab ib txwm muaj los ntawm xyoo 2026.
Kev Lag Luam Cia Khoom Siv Roj Teeb Loj Hlob, Txhawb Kev Ywj Pheej ntawm Grid
Cov nqi khaws cia roj teeb uas poob qis tau ua rau nws txoj kev koom ua ke rau hauv cov tshuab fais fab sai dua. Tom qab poob qis 27% txhua xyoo hauv xyoo 2025, cov nqi khaws cia plaub teev tau ruaj khov ntawm $ 78-80 / MWh hauv xyoo 2026. Cov nqi roj teeb rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob nyob ze $ 80 / kWh - kwv yees li 50% qis dua xyoo 2023. Qhov zoo ntawm tus nqi no ua rau cov tshuab khaws cia roj teeb (BESS) sib tw nrog cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob roj hauv ntau lub khw, tsav kev loj hlob muaj zog hauv lub peev xwm khaws cia hnub ci thoob ntiaj teb.
Kev nce qib ntawm thev naus laus zis tab tom nthuav dav cov ntaub ntawv siv roj teeb cia. Cov roj teeb Lithium hlau phosphate (LFP) tau txais kev pom zoo dav dav, ua rau lub zog ceev thiab kev sib koom ua ke zoo dua. Kev thov kuj nce siab rau cov khoom siv txhawb nqa: cov txheej txheem tswj roj teeb (BMS), kev tswj hwm ntse grid, thiab cov cuab yeej tswj zaus. Cov no yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev daws teeb meem ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev hloov pauv. Xyoo 2026, cov thev naus laus zis roj teeb ntws kua kuj tseem tab tom nce qib sai sai, nrog rau kev tshawb pom hauv cov ntaub ntawv electrode thiab cov qauv electrolyte txo cov nqi thiab txhim kho kev ruaj khov - txhawb nqa kev khaws cia ntev rau kev sib koom ua ke loj. IEA hais tias kev khaws cia roj teeb, ua ke nrog kev hloov kho grid, yuav qhib lub peev xwm tag nrho ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab, nrog rau lub peev xwm khaws cia thoob ntiaj teb teeb tsa kom nthuav dav kom ua tau raws li xyoo 2030 50% lub hom phiaj hluav taws xob qis.
Kev Hloov Pauv Hauv Cheeb Tsam Sib Txawv, Nrog Cov Neeg Xa Khoom Tawm Tebchaws Es Xias Ua Tus Thawj Coj
Xyoo 2026 kev lag luam khoom siv fais fab thoob ntiaj teb qhia txog qhov sib txawv ntawm cheeb tsam. Tebchaws Es Xias tseem yog lub hauv paus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov: Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv fais fab xa tawm tau dhia 32.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv ob lub hlis thawj zaug. Middle East, North America, thiab Tebchaws Europe muaj kev thov ntau rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob faib tawm. Nyiv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xa tawm tau nce 11.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo, tsav los ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor, nrog rau kev xa khoom muaj zog mus rau Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Nyab Laj).
Hauv Tebchaws Europe, EU txoj kev npaj "Fit for 55" tab tom ua kom cov hluav taws xob siv thee tsawg zuj zus, ua rau muaj kev xav tau cov khoom siv smart grid thiab kev khaws cia hluav taws xob. Kev lag luam EV hauv cheeb tsam kuj ua rau muaj kev xav tau: 9 lub tebchaws European tau muag 207,000 lub tsheb fais fab tshiab thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2026, nce 23.1% txhua xyoo, nrog rau 29.5% kev nkag mus. Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, Fabkis, Ltalis, thiab Spain tau txuas ntxiv lossis txhim kho cov nyiaj pab EV, ua rau muaj kev xav tau rau kev them nqi thiab txhawb nqa cov khoom siv fais fab.
Nyob rau hauv North America, Tebchaws Meskas yog tus ua tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb rau kev siv roj teeb cia khoom siv vim yog Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Txawm li cas los xij, kev yuam kom ua haujlwm hauv zos thiab kev txwv kev lag luam thawb cov nqi khoom siv. Peb lub tuam txhab loj hauv cheeb tsam hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau pom zoo rau $ 75 billion hauv kev nthuav dav kev xa hluav taws xob. Lawv yuav tsim cov kab hluav taws xob siab heev 765kV, nthuav dav mus rau 10,000 mais - plaub npaug ntawm lub peev xwm tam sim no. Qhov no hais txog cov khoom siv qub: 70% ntawm cov transformers thiab cov kab xa hluav taws xob muaj hnub nyoog tshaj 25 xyoo, thiab 60% ntawm cov circuit breakers muaj hnub nyoog tshaj 30 xyoo. Lub caij no, kev siv hluav taws xob AI hauv chaw khaws ntaub ntawv nce ntxiv - kwv yees tias yuav ncav cuag 6.7% -12.0% ntawm hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Meskas los ntawm 2028 - tab tom tsav tsheb ntxiv kev txhim kho grid thiab kev thov khoom siv, nrog 800VDC thiab kua txias tshwm sim ua cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb.
Cov lag luam tshiab hauv cov teb chaws Es Xias Qab Teb thiab Africa yog cov ncej tshiab rau kev loj hlob. Kev loj hlob hauv nroog thiab kev siv hluav taws xob ua rau muaj kev xav tau cov khoom siv xa hluav taws xob thiab faib khoom yooj yim. Txawm li cas los xij, kev nqis peev tsis txaus ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob thiab kev muaj peev xwm thev naus laus zis txwv tsis pub kev loj hlob.
Kev Cia Siab Ntev: Kev Nqis Peev Hauv Grid thiab Kev Tsim Kho Tshiab Tsav Kev Loj Hlob Mus Ntev
Lub IEA kwv yees tias lub zog uas tsis muaj pa phem—uas yog cov zog rov ua dua tshiab thiab nuclear—yuav ncav cuag 50% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2030, nce ntxiv los ntawm 42% hauv xyoo 2025. Qhov no yuav tsum tau nce 50% ntawm kev nqis peev txhua xyoo thoob ntiaj teb, los ntawm $ 400 billion tam sim no. Nws yuav tsim kom muaj kev thov kom muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo, ua raws li txoj cai, thiab ntse thoob plaws hauv cov tsev nyob, kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam. Ib qho teeb meem tseem ceeb tseem tshuav: kev tsim hluav taws xob tseem qeeb dua kev tsim cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob, nrog ntau dua 250 GW ntawm cov haujlwm rov ua dua tshiab, khaws cia hluav taws xob, thiab cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv tos kom txuas thoob ntiaj teb.
Kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm thev naus laus zis yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev kov yeej cov teeb meem. Kev siv digital, kev txawj ntse, thiab kev ntsuab yog cov qauv tseem ceeb rau kev hloov kho khoom siv. Cov thev naus laus zis ntse grid, cov ntxaib digital, thiab cov khoom siv tsis muaj carbon yuav pom kev siv dav dua. Kev ua raws li kev siv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb thiab cov qauv tso pa tawm carbon kuj yuav dhau los ua qhov yuav tsum tau nkag mus rau kev ua lag luam. Qhov no thawb cov tuam txhab kom ua kom nrawm dua kev tsim khoom ntsuab thiab tsim cov txheej txheem suav cov pa roj carbon. Tuam Tshoj txoj cai txhawb nqa - suav nrog kev lag luam kev lag luam thiab kev nthuav dav kev ua lag luam - kuj txhawb nqa kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb
Xyoo 2026 yog ib xyoo tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb txog kev siv hluav taws xob thiab fais fab. Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tshiab tau loj hlob tuaj, kev hloov pauv ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob hauv lub network tau nrawm dua, thiab kev ua lag luam tab tom nthuav dav zuj zus. Txawm li cas los xij, kev ua kom muaj zog ntawm cov khoom siv, kev siv thev naus laus zis, thiab kev ua raws li txoj cai yog cov teeb meem tseem ceeb. Rau cov neeg muab khoom siv, kev vam meej nyob ntawm kev siv cov cib fim los ntawm kev koom ua ke ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tshiab, kev hloov kho ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob, thiab kev lag luam cia roj teeb - thaum txhawb nqa kev ywj pheej thiab kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv. Kev lag luam tab tom txav mus rau yav tom ntej uas ua haujlwm tau zoo dua, ntse dua, thiab ruaj khov dua, txhawb nqa los ntawm lub hom phiaj hloov pauv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb.
Qhov Chaw: Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Kev Fais Fab IEA 2026, Cov Txheeb Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb, Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam, thiab Kev Hloov Kho Tshiab Tshaj Plaws ntawm Kev Lag Luam (Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2026); Tuam Tshoj Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology; Cov Tsev Kawm Ntawv Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-24-2026
