Raws li kev lag luam hluav taws xob thiab khoom siv fais fab thoob ntiaj teb nkag mus rau xyoo tseem ceeb ntawm2026 xyoo, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv uas tsav los ntawm kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv mus tob zuj zus. Thaum lub sector tau txais kev loj hlob los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob huv thiab kev thov hluav taws xob nce siab, nws kuj ntsib cov teeb meem ntxiv los ntawm kev txwv cov khoom siv, kev hloov pauv kev cai lij choj thiab kev hloov kho thev naus laus zis. Kos duab los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab los ntawm IEA Electricity 2026 Report, cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam, tsab xov xwm no nkag mus rau hauv cov dynamics tshiab,Cov teeb meem tseem ceeb thiab cov kev taw qhia yav tom ntejtsim kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2026.
1. Kev Tswj Xyuas Rov Qab Tau Ua Ke, Ua Rau Muaj Kev Xav Tau Kev Txhim Kho Cov Khoom Siv Zoo Tshaj Plaws
Xyoo 2026 yog lub sijhawm tseem ceeb rau kev hloov pauv thoob ntiaj teb ntawm lub zog fais fab: cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab tau dhau los ua cov thee ua lub hauv paus hluav taws xob loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, xaus rau qhov kev tswj hwm ntawm cov thee yuav luag ib puas xyoo raws li IEA tau kwv yees. Lub zog hnub ci PV thiab lub zog cua ua ke suav txog ze li ntawm 20% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb, nrog rau lub zog hnub ci PV tshwm sim ua qhov loj hlob sai tshaj plaws - nws cov khoom tsim txhua xyoo tau txog 620 TWh hauv xyoo 2025, qhov dhia loj heev los ntawm 450 TWh hauv xyoo 2024, thiab xav tias yuav dhau cua, nuclear thiab hydropower hauv lub sijhawm luv luv. Qhov kev nthuav dav sai no tsis txwv rau qhov kev thov khoom siv yooj yim lawm; hloov chaw, nws tab tom tsav tsheb ib nthwv dej txhim kho hauv kev lag luam khoom siv fais fab.
Vim muaj kev koom ua ke ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab loj heev, qhov xav tau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo thiab ntse heev. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob high-voltage direct current (HVDC), uas daws qhov teeb meem ntawm kev xa hluav taws xob mus deb thiab tsis poob ntau, tau pom kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntau dua 25% hauv xyoo 2026. Lub caij no, cov inverters ntse nrog cov peev xwm tswj hwm kev sib txuas ntawm lub grid thiab cov haujlwm sib phim lub zog tau dhau los ua cov qauv txheem rau cov haujlwm hnub ci thiab cua tshiab. Qhov tseem ceeb, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm UHV thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob DC hloov pauv tau nce 81.5% txhua xyoo hauv ob lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2026, ua tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab.
2. Kev thov khoom tseem nce ntxiv, kev ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj ua rau muaj kev sib tw tseem ceeb
Kev thov hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tseem muaj kev loj hlob zoo, nce 3.7% hauv xyoo 2026—yuav luag 2.5 npaug ntawm qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov hluav taws xob tag nrho—tsav los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam, kev nthuav dav ntawm chaw khaws ntaub ntawv AI, kev nkag mus rau hauv EV thiab kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv txias thaum lub caij ntuj sov. Cov teb chaws tshiab tseem yog lub cav tseem ceeb ntawm kev loj hlob, pab txhawb yuav luag 80% ntawm kev thov hluav taws xob tshiab thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2030, thaum cov teb chaws tsim kho kuj pom kev rov zoo ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, nrog rau AI thiab kev tsim khoom siab heev ua rau muaj kev loj hlob tshiab.
Qhov kev thov nce ntxiv no tau ua rau muaj kev txwv tsis pub muaj cov khoom tseem ceeb. Cov transformers, switchgear thiab cov cables high-voltage tseem tsis txaus, nrog rau lub sijhawm ua khoom rau qee cov khoom tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv mus txog 8-12 lub hlis. Cov chaw tsim khoom tab tom nce lub peev xwm tsim khoom, tab sis lawv ntsib teeb meem los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi raw khoom - tus nqi tooj liab thiab txhuas tau hloov pauv ntau dua 20% txhua xyoo - thiab kev cuam tshuam kev thauj mus los qee zaum. Txhawm rau daws qhov teeb meem no, ntau lub tuam txhab tab tom ua kom nrawm dua "Tuam Tshoj + N" kev teeb tsa ntau yam, hloov ib feem ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom mus rau Sab Hnub Tuaj Asia thaum sib sau ua ke cov khoom siv tseem ceeb hauv Suav teb, los txhim kho kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm geopolitical thiab kev lag luam. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm kev xa hluav taws xob thiab kev faib khoom siv muaj nqis ntawm USD 142.8 billion hauv xyoo 2026, nrog rau cov transformers suav txog 38.2% ntawm kev sib koom ua lag luam, qhia txog qhov chaw tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam.
3. Kev Khaws Cia Roj Teeb Loj Hlob Mus Rau Kev Lag Luam, Los Ua Lub Hauv Paus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Hloov Pauv ntawm Grid
Tus nqi cia roj teeb poob qis tas li ua rau nws txoj kev koom ua ke rau hauv lub zog hluav taws xob sai dua. Tom qab poob qis 27% txhua xyoo hauv xyoo 2025, tus nqi cia roj teeb plaub teev tau ruaj khov ntawm $ 78-80 / MWh hauv xyoo 2026, nrog rau tus nqi roj teeb rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ze li $ 80 / kWh - kwv yees li 50% qis dua xyoo 2023. Qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm tus nqi no tau ua rau cov tshuab cia roj teeb (BESS) sib tw nrog cov nroj tsuag roj teeb hauv ntau lub khw, tsav tsheb thoob ntiaj teb lub peev xwm cia hnub ci ntxiv kom tswj tau tus nqi loj hlob siab.
Dhau li ntawm kev poob qis ntawm tus nqi, kev nce qib ntawm thev naus laus zis tab tom nthuav dav cov xwm txheej ntawm kev siv roj teeb cia. Cov thev naus laus zis roj teeb Lithium hlau phosphate (LFP) tau raug siv dav dav, txhim kho qhov ceev ntawm lub zog thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm lub kaw lus. Lub caij no, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv txhawb nqa xws li cov txheej txheem tswj roj teeb (BMS), kev tswj hwm ntse grid thiab cov khoom siv tswj zaus tab tom loj hlob sai, vim tias lawv tseem ceeb heev rau kev daws qhov tsis tu ncua thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab. IEA taw qhia tias kev khaws cia roj teeb, nrog rau kev hloov kho grid, yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev qhib lub peev xwm tag nrho ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, nrog rau lub peev xwm khaws cia thoob ntiaj teb xav tias yuav nthuav dav heev los txhawb nqa 50% lub hom phiaj hluav taws xob qis-emission los ntawm 2030.
4. Kev sib txawv ntawm thaj tsam hauv cheeb tsam, cov neeg xa khoom tawm hauv tebchaws Es Xias tseem ua tau zoo tshaj plaws
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom siv fais fab qhia txog kev sib txawv ntawm thaj tsam hauv xyoo 2026. Tebchaws Es Xias tseem yog lub hauv paus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov thoob ntiaj teb: Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv fais fab xa tawm tau dhia 32.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv ob lub hlis thawj zaug, nrog rau kev thov muaj zog rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob faib tawm hauv Middle East, North America thiab Europe. Nyiv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xa tawm kuj tau nce 11.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo, tsav los ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor, nrog rau kev xa khoom zoo rau cov tebchaws Es Xias Qab Teb xws li Taiwan, Malaysia thiab Nyab Laj.
Nyob rau hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab North America, kev kho dua tshiab ntawm lub grid thiab kev siv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab yog cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev xav tau cov khoom siv. EU txoj kev npaj "Fit for 55" tau ua kom nrawm dua qhov kev txo qis ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob los ntawm thee, ua rau muaj kev xav tau rau cov khoom siv smart grid thiab cov tshuab khaws cia hluav taws xob. Tebchaws Meskas tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm Kev Them Se Kev Nqis Peev (ITC) thiab cov cai cuam tshuam, ua tus thawj coj hauv kev xa cov roj teeb thoob ntiaj teb, tab sis ntsib cov nqi khoom siv siab dua vim muaj kev cai hauv zos thiab kev txwv kev lag luam. Cov lag luam tshiab hauv Southeast Asia thiab Africa tab tom dhau los ua cov ncej loj hlob tshiab, nrog rau kev xav tau nce ntxiv rau cov khoom siv xa hluav taws xob yooj yim thiab faib khoom siv los ntawm kev loj hlob hauv nroog thiab kev siv hluav taws xob, tab sis txwv los ntawm kev nqis peev tsis txaus ntawm lub grid thiab lub peev xwm kev txawj ntse.
5. Lub Zeem Muag Mus Ntev: Kev Nqis Peev Hauv Grid thiab Kev Tsim Kho Tshiab Hauv Tshuab Ua Rau Kev Loj Hlob Ruaj Khov
Lub IEA kwv yees tias lub zog uas tsis muaj pa phem—uas yog cov zog rov ua dua tshiab thiab nuclear—yuav suav txog 50% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2030, nce ntxiv los ntawm 42% hauv xyoo 2025, uas yuav tsum tau nce 50% ntawm kev nqis peev txhua xyoo ntawm lub zog thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm qib $ 400 billion tam sim no. Qhov kev nqis peev loj heev no yuav tsim kom muaj kev thov tas mus li rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo, ua raws li txoj cai thiab ntse thoob plaws cov tsev nyob, kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam kuj ntsib teeb meem: kev tsim lub zog hluav taws xob qeeb dua li kev tsim kho lub zog, nrog ntau dua 250 GW ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, kev khaws cia hluav taws xob thiab cov haujlwm chaw khaws ntaub ntawv tos kom txuas nrog lub zog hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb.
Saib mus tom ntej, kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm thev naus laus zis yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev tawg los ntawm cov teeb meem. Kev siv digital, kev txawj ntse thiab kev ntsuab yuav dhau los ua cov qauv tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhim kho cov khoom siv - cov thev naus laus zis ntse grid, cov ntxaib digital thiab cov khoom siv tsis muaj carbon yuav tau txais kev siv dav dua. Lub caij no, kev ua raws li cov qauv kev siv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb thiab cov cai tswj kev tso pa tawm carbon yuav dhau los ua qhov yuav tsum tau ua rau kev nkag mus rau kev ua lag luam, thawb cov tuam txhab kom ua kom nrawm dua kev hloov pauv kev tsim khoom ntsuab thiab kev tsim cov txheej txheem suav nrog carbon footprint.
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb
Xyoo 2026 yog ib xyoo tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb txog hluav taws xob thiab khoom siv fais fab: kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob tau nkag mus rau theem paub tab, kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm lub network tab tom nrawm dua, thiab kev ua lag luam tab tom nthuav dav zuj zus, tab sis kev ua kom muaj zog ntawm cov khoom siv, kev siv thev naus laus zis thiab kev ua raws li txoj cai tau dhau los ua cov teeb meem tseem ceeb. Rau cov neeg muab khoom siv, kev siv cov cib fim los ntawm kev koom ua ke ntawm lub zog tshiab, kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm lub grid thiab kev lag luam cia roj teeb, thaum txhim kho kev ywj pheej ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev muaj peev xwm tsim kho tshiab ntawm cov thev naus laus zis, yuav yog lub hauv paus rau kev ntes tau feem ntawm kev ua lag luam. Kev lag luam tab tom txav mus rau yav tom ntej zoo dua, ntse dua thiab ruaj khov dua, nrog rau kev loj hlob mus sij hawm ntev uas txhawb nqa los ntawm lub hom phiaj hloov pauv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-19-2026
