Cov Qauv Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Lag Luam (2025-2026)
Lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv fais fab tab tom hloov pauv cov qauv uas coj los ntawm kev siv lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, kev thov hluav taws xob nce ntxiv thiab kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm lub network. Txhawb nqa los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv muaj cai, hauv qab no yog cov qauv ua tau thiab raws li qhov tseeb uas hloov kho kev ua lag luam.
1. Cov Khoom Siv Rov Ua Dua Tshiab Yuav Tshaj Lij Thee Ua Lub Zog Tseem Ceeb Tshaj Plaws Los Ntawm Xyoo 2026
Raws li daim ntawv qhia txog Hluav Taws Xob Xyoo 2026 ntawm IEA, cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab yuav dhau cov thee ua lub hauv paus hluav taws xob loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2026—ua rau cov thee tsis muaj zog yuav luag 100 xyoo. Lub hnub ci PV thiab cua yuav suav txog 20% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2026 (nce los ntawm 15% hauv xyoo 2024), nrog rau lub hnub ci PV teeb tsa kom dhau cua, nuclear thiab hydropower hauv xyoo tom ntej. Qhov kev hloov pauv no ua rau muaj kev xav tau rau PV inverters, transformers, high-voltage gear thiab distribution equipment.
2. Kev thov hluav taws xob ntau ntxiv ua rau muaj kev nyuaj siab rau kev muab khoom siv
Kev thov hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce 3.3% (2025) thiab 3.7% (2026), ob npaug ntawm qhov kev loj hlob ntawm lub zog tag nrho, tsav los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam (60% los ntawm Asia), kev nthuav dav ntawm chaw khaws ntaub ntawv / AI thiab kev siv EV. Qhov kev nce siab tau tsim kev muab khoom tsawg rau cov khoom tseem ceeb: transformers, switchgear, circuit breakers thiab cabling, thawb cov chaw tsim khoom kom nce kev tsim khoom.
3. Tus nqi cia roj teeb poob qis, ua rau muaj kev xav tau yooj yim ntawm lub network
Cov ntaub ntawv ntawm BloombergNEF qhia tau tias tus nqi cia roj teeb plaub teev tau poob qis 27% YoY mus rau $ 78 / MWh hauv xyoo 2025 (qis tshaj plaws), ua rau muaj 87GW ntawm lub peev xwm cia hnub ci thoob ntiaj teb xyoo tas los. Cov nqi poob qis ua rau muaj kev xav tau rau kev tswj hwm lub zog ntse, cov txheej txheem tswj roj teeb (BMS) thiab cov khoom siv ruaj khov los txhawb kev tsim hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab.
4. Cov Neeg Xa Khoom Tawm Tebchaws Es Xias Ua Tus Thawj Coj Kev Loj Hlob ntawm Cov Khoom Siv Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Cov ntaub ntawv txog kev lis kev cai thaum ntxov xyoo 2026 qhia tau tias kev xa khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj zog los ntawm cov teb chaws Es Xias: Kev xa khoom siv hluav taws xob ntawm Tuam Tshoj tau dhia 32.7% YoY (Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Ob Hlis), nrog rau UHV thiab cov iav hloov pauv DC hloov pauv tau nce 81.5%. Kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsawg thiab cov hloov pauv faib khoom tseem muaj zog thoob plaws Middle East, North America thiab Europe, nrog rau cov cua me me los ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab cov nqi xa khoom.
5. Kev Pom Kev Mus Ntev: Kev Nqis Peev Hauv Grid Yuav Ua Rau Kev Loj Hlob Ruaj Khoov
Lub IEA kwv yees tias lub zog uas tsis muaj pa phem yuav cuam tshuam txog 50% ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm xyoo 2030 (nce ntawm 42% hauv xyoo 2025), uas yuav tsum tau muaj kev nqis peev loj heev rau lub network thiab chaw cia khoom. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev thov tas mus li rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo, ua raws li txoj cai thoob plaws hauv tsev, kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam.
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb: Kev lag luam khoom siv hluav taws xob tau teeb tsa rau kev loj hlob ruaj khov xyoo 2026, txhawb nqa los ntawm kev hloov pauv rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev txhim kho lub zog hluav taws xob. Cov neeg muab khoom tsom mus rau kev ua haujlwm zoo, ntse thiab ruaj khov yuav ntes tau cov cib fim ua lag luam feem ntau.
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Los ntawm txoj kev, tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv yog los ntawm IEA Electricity 2026 Report thiab cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-17-2026
